Factors threatening passage of the referendum are five-fold.

First, Assembly members up for re-election wanted little controversy to upset the standing Republican majority, so they took an unusual four-month vacation from issues. The Assembly essentially closed down after June. Silence may be good for the incumbents, but it's bad for keeping issues in the spotlight -- the Trust Fund hasn't received significant coverage since early summer. Second, NJDOT and the Whitman Administration apparently relied on the Committee for Better Transportation -- a conglomerate including the state's road lobby -- to create and spend a warchest to promote the ballot referendum. A media campaign appears to now be getting underway (an op-ed piece appeared in yesterday's Star Ledger and radio ads have begun). Third, competing at the ballot box are "Green Acres" and "Blue Acres" bond issues likely to be popular with reform-minded voters who turn out. The gas tax dedication wording on the ballot is dense, and could fare badly against catchily-titled, popular open space preservation and clean water initiatives. Fourth, conservative candidates are running in about 31 of the state's 40 districts who, together with an "unfunded mandates" ballot initiative, may pull out an element of the electorate that could oppose greater public debt. Finally, NJDOT is selling the Trust Fund largely on the jobs it will create (rather than the traffic it will alleviate), citing several new highway construction projects in its glossy brochure that are locally controversial -- Rte. 18 in Piscataway, the Hightstown Bypass and I-287.

That the Administration's campaign on behalf of the Trust Fund is slow to unfold is unfortunate. The plan is a constructive bi-partisan initiative, and a properly informed electorate would vote for it. Over its five-year term, more of the money will be spent on transit (especially on the Urban Core projects) than on highway construction. The Whitman Transportation Trust Fund would give the state a leg up on traffic congestion and provide the country with a good example of meeting congestion and air pollution with real solutions instead of self-defeating roadway expansion programs.