A Campaign analysis compared projected Route 92 toll revenue with anticipated debt service of new construction bonds. According to the toll projections and optimistic financing scenarios, Route 92 would engender a $258 million shortfall (in net present value terms) over the life of a 21-year bond.

To allow for more positive possible outcomes, the analysis included sensitivity analyses that gauged the economics of the project given 50% higher traffic than anticipated, 100% higher tolls than anticipated, or both. In each case, the tolls failed to cover debt service on Route 92's construction.

The findings are significant because they show that Route 92 construction could have impacts on toll revenue and rates on the Turnpike system as a whole. Though public agencies often cross-subsidize projects, the Turnpike Authority is running an overall operating deficit. Construction and reserve funds are now being used to plug a gap in debt service, which constitutes 59% of the Turnpike Authority's expenses.

A toll hike across the system would be the only way to balance the budget. Moody's, the bond rating concern, has recently encouraged the agency to raise tolls to improve its financial position. In 1997, Moody's warned that new Turnpike debt without higher tolls would "negatively affect" the Turnpike Authority's bond rating.

The net present value (NPV) shortfall accounts for depreciation of
monetary value over time, and shows the equivalent cost today