Transit officials and experts interviewed for the article unanimously proclaimed it far too early to pass judgement on the success of the line, and cited numerous reasons for the shortfall.

Strong factors discouraging greater use are that the originally conceived initial operating segment is still under construction, and the mass transit dead-end at the line's Bayonne terminus. Observers expect that once the line is extended to provide access to major destinations and connections like the Newport shopping mall (Spring 2001) and Hoboken Terminal (2002), ridership will reach and likely exceed projected levels (see table). At present, the only convenient light rail-PATH connection leads to the World Trade Center, not to the much larger Midtown Manhattan business district.

While Exchange Place is rapidly becoming a major business and transit center, the Star-Ledger recently described Bayonne as an "economically stagnant, isolated peninsula." Staten Islanders who might use the Bayonne terminus as a transfer point to Jersey City or Manhattan are now derailed by the lack of connecting express bus service and the absence of a completed parking lot at the 34th St. terminal.

Another factor not discussed in news reports is the light rail's fare policy. A free or discounted transfer to PATH trains would surely draw large numbers of new riders and should have been part of the original fare plan unveiled in March (MTR #260). Also, while NJTransit does offer free transfers to connecting NJT buses for light rail monthly pass holders, the incentive to hop on the light rail could be made stronger by promoting single-ride free transfers, like the highly successful MTA MetroCard arrangement.

In the long term, completion of current and planned development should also add thousands of daily riders to the area. Six new office towers are sited for construction in Jersey City alone over the next five years. Retail and residential complexes will be built near the Marin Boulevard and Essex St. Station, with the Jersey City Medical Center also to be located with access to the light rail. Due to the new transit line, Bayonne is also situated to become a popular residential alternative to the increasingly expensive communities to its north.