Temporary total driving declines in the past have been attributed to recessions or slowing economic growth. That may have been a factor in some of the most recent data, but it wouldn't explain slowing VMT growth rates in 1998 and 1999.

Most interesting for the current shift in the VMT trend is the strong corresponding growth in mass transit ridership. Since 1997, national transit ridership has grown at around 5% per year, from 4.7% in 1997 and 1999 to 5.2% in 1998. Preliminary numbers point to about a 5% gain in 2000 as well. It's hard to gauge how the slowing economy may affect transit, but 3^rd quarter 2000 ridership numbers published by the American Public Transit Association (APTA) show strong to modest rider increases vs. 3^rd quarter 1999 in cities such as New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, Atlanta, San Francisco, Chicago and Miami.
 

New York City is U.S. Transit Growth Engine Booming ridership in New York is in fact accounting for much of the absolute growth in U.S. transit riding. New York transit advocates have noted that the national transit riding boom corresponded with 1997's upward spike in NYC bus and subway ridership, which was in turn spurred by implementation of free transfers between NYC buses and subways. APTA estimates that usage of U.S. transit systems grew by about 320 million rides during 2000. APTA reported year-to-date increases over 1999 for NYC Transit subways and buses of 8.3% and 5.4% through September 2000. If these rates hold up through the end of 2000, NYC Transit will have added 187 million trips last year, or about 58% of new U.S. transit trips. NYC transit advocates and the Pataki Administration can take significant credit for the U.S. transit boom. Metro Region Implications  But New York's leaders also need to address the transit boom's consequences. Data showing growth in ridership will come as no surprise to people pinned inside rush-hour F-trains or standing on long Metro-North and NJ Transit runs. To maintain growth and keep current riders, the region's transit agencies and state and local governments clearly need to invest in expanding transit systems and provide big enough operating budgets to meet rider demand. These investments are lagging in all three of our region's states. On the other hand, if the national and northeastern driving trends continue a shift toward slower growth, state DOTs will have to revisit assumptions underlying highway expansion projects, especially radical area-wide plans like the Long Island Transportation Plan 2000.

U.S. Urban Transit Trips, 1998 (areas over 1 million population) Rank "Urbanized Area" Annual Trips % of Total 1 New York, NY-Northeastern NJ 3,508,540,600 45.67 3 Chicago, IL-Northwestern IN 561,328,900 7.31 2 Los Angeles, CA 557,416,300 7.26 6 San Francisco-Oakland, CA 414,999,200 5.4 7 Washington, DC-MD-VA 363,780,900 4.74 10 Boston, MA 340,078,600 4.43 4 Philadelphia, PA-NJ 284,070,100 3.7 12 Atlanta, GA 160,964,000 2.1 18 Seattle, WA 120,568,300 1.57 17 Baltimore, MD 106,652,500 1.39 9 Houston, TX 95,181,100 1.24 11 San Diego, CA 89,592,800 1.17 29 Portland, OR-Vancouver, WA 87,112,400 1.14 16 Miami-Hialeah, FL 82,906,000 1.08 20 Pittsburgh, PA 77,187,400 1 Total for >1M urbanized areas w/ fewer than 75 million transit trips 831,862,600 10.83