Platt's optimism contradicts a Thruway official cited in the Journal News before the PA toll increase was approved. It also belies analysis the newspaper undertook that found toll hikes at the George Washington Bridge have directly preceded the three highest percentage traffic increases on the Tappan Zee in the last thirty years (MTR #301).

Platt said the Thruway Authority is not considering a toll increase or time-varied tolls to combat any commuter route-changing the George Washington Bridge hike might cause. The agency now says the Port Authority increase will have minimal effect on I-287 traffic because congestion there is so bad that GWB drivers are likely to pay more rather than submit to Tappan Zee delays (an argument one could make in support of Tappan Zee congestion pricing!).

The Thruway's change of heart is probably mostly keyed to political timing. Candidates are already jockeying for position for the 2002 NY State governor's race, and incumbents generally rule out toll and fare increases heading into an electoral contest.

Introducing congestion pricing elsewhere in the region has been successful when coupled with a toll increase justified by a need for revenue. The Thruway Authority does not appear to be at the point of needing to raise money, though that situation will change dramatically if anything in the form of a Tappan Zee replacement bridge is ultimately approved. That will only come after a lengthy period of study and debate, which will conveniently push all of these issues past the November, 2002 election.

However, if a bad spill-over effect from the Port Authority hike does materialize, it would not be a surprise if Tappan Zee drivers begin to suspect that the Thruway's unwillingness to implement near-term anti-congestion measures is an attempt to hold them hostage to approval of the replacement bridge plan.