Although the MTA and Governor Pataki’s office have issued predictable statements that no subway and bus fare hike is under consideration, those following MTA finances believe the agency will propose an increase late this year or early in the next, after the fall election.  Mayor Bloomberg’s comments last week underscored the prediction.

The MTA generally increases bridge and tunnel tolls along with bus, subway and commuter rail fares.  Although it is not allowed to admit that a hike is under consideration, the MTA should put its bridge and tunnel managers to work now to develop a plan for variable tolls – higher at rush hour, lower during other times.

A toll increase is the time to implement such a system.  “Smart” tolls give back to motorists in ways that an across-the-board toll increase cannot – off-peak drivers pay less, while the rush hour sees some measure of congestion relief.

MTA leaders have argued in the past that variable tolls will not work at its crossings because of competition from the free East River crossings.  Their reasoning is wrong.  Of course, free crossings will always compete with those that charge tolls.  But why would a rush hour toll of $4.50 that is part of a variable pricing schedule lead to more diversions to free bridges than a $4.50 toll that is in effect at all times of day?  If anything, off-peak toll discounts — especially if they represent a marginal or no increase over today’s rate — will result in fewer diversions during off-peak times.

Because the Port Authority and New Jersey Turnpike have successfully implemented variable toll pricing systems, the MTA and Governor Pataki – who approved the will run the risk of appearing behind the times if they come through with a flat, “dumb” toll hike that offers nothing to drivers but more out of pocket costs. 

Bloomberg Sees Fare Increase Possible in 2003 (July 8, 2002)

Bridge Tolls Still on Bloomberg Agenda? (July 8, 2002)

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