A new report by the NYC Independent Budget Office adds to the growing body of analysis that finds East River bridge tolls would bust bridge congestion and yield significant revenue gains to depleted city coffers and the cash-strapped MTA.

The IBO paper looked at a scenario in which tolls would be levied from cars entering Manhattan on both the city’s East River and Harlem River Bridges. It joins recent East River studies released by the Straphangers Campaign/Transportation Alternatives and the Bridge Tolls Advocacy Project (MTR #’s 426, 432) in predicting significant revenue gains and traffic reduction on and near currently free bridges from implementation of new tolls. All three papers should be read through — below we summarize only a few major findings from each.

An interesting contrast is in the BTAP revenue estimate versus the greater congestion reduction posed by the other two efforts. BTAP found that tolls’ congestion reduction impact would feed back to "re-attract" other drivers who value time savings over toll costs. On the other hand, Schaller showed that traffic growth had been much higher on free than on toll bridges during the past decade. That may suggest that BTAP underestimated tolls’ deterrent effect on drivers. But it may also mean that time savings at MTA crossings today are not significant enough over the free bridges to lure more drivers to pay tolls. The East River toll scenarios in each of the studies assume significant "open road tolling" system improvements over the MTA’s E-ZPass-with-gates system.

In any case, the group of studies points once again to the eventual need for an official city analysis of the issue. Mayor Bloomberg told reporters that tolls would require an extensive environmental impact statement. Politics aside, that would indicate that the city ought to get going on such a study. But the mayor has said straight out that he does not now have the political capital to press the issue. As he begins to campaign for support in NYC’s boroughs, press coverage of the issue is driving the mayor closer to a "no" stance on East River tolls (despite another Newsday editorial in the favor last week).

Study	NYC Revenue Gain	MTA Revenue Gain	Effect on Traffic
Schaller(T.A./Straphangers)	$482 million to $522 million (depending on toll price)	$58 to $106 million (depending on toll price)	24-26% traffic decline on East River bridges.
Komanoff(Bridge Tolls Advocacy Project)	$700 million	38,000 cars/ day switch to MTA tolls.(@ $3.50 toll, approx. $50 million)	14% decrease in traffic on East River bridges.
NYC IBO	$502 million($7 on E. River, $3 at Harlem River bridges)	$91-$106 million	19% decrease in traffic on East River bridges.

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