The long-awaited Comprehensive Port Improvement Plan (CPIP) process undertaken by the Port Authority, State of New Jersey, NYC Economic Development Corp. and other agencies is nearing its public unveiling. The project will map out a harbor, highway and rail plan to accommodate expanded port operation due to our region’s huge market and logistical pre-eminence among East Coast ports.

The CPIP plan will likely join the deepening of harbor ship channels (to 50 feet) with consideration of port terminal expansion and major transportation infrastructure projects. At stake is how the region will accommodate and manage huge anticipated growth in maritime trade. The monster process begins its public phase in early December with scoping hearings (see calendar section).

Project consultants have so far released two reports about the transportation system’s capacity to handle port-related trips — one on highways, and one on the rail freight network.

The railroad study says the network is congested now and won’t be able to cope with the expected influx. The study reports, "Some of these routes are clearly struggling to handle existing volumes... In particular, on shared assets (remnant Conrail facilities jointly run by Norfolk Southern and CSX) the existing choke points will worsen and spread."

It says the Port Authority intermodal rail sites at Expressrail and Newark Bay are becoming congested, portions of rail corridors connecting to those sites cannot accommodate double-stack equipment and there are restrictions for freight on various commuter lines. Because of this, the study found that "certain corridors, particularly east of the Hudson, will not see [future] growth owing to constraints of capacity, clearances, policy and competing rail routes." It specifically forecasts worsening congestion on the CSX main line between Buffalo, Selkirk and Boston, CSX north-south routes and on Norfolk Southern’s westbound route through Pennsylvania — in other words, most key corridors from the Port.

The study says planned enhancements to the Conrail shared assets area will have a demonstrable effect on rail capacity and capability, as will double stack clearance on CSX’s route south from the port, but this addresses only part of the capacity problem. Chemical Coast, Lehigh, and other NJ lines will continue to see increased congestion, and problems on CSX’s River Line and NS’s PA route remain unresolved by current planning. Problems will emerge later in western NY and New England because of "CPIP-induced growth."

Overall volume assessments see a scenario where rail volumes double from the present to 2020, then double again from 2020 to 2060.

On the roads, the surprising figure is the low percentage of port-related truck trips, now and in the future. The study finds that trucks only represent 3.9% of total traffic on the entire highway network. Port-related trucks constitute .07% of total traffic and 1.8% of trucks on the regional highway network. The 3.9% figure is expected to decline as total traffic increases faster than trucks’ share.

Port-related truck trips are forecast to increase more rapidly than general traffic or other truck traffic. However, as port-related trucks accounted for less than .1% of all trips in the region in 2000, even an almost 150% increase in port-related truck trips only increases this figure to .12% of regional traffic.

When specific corridors are analyzed, the truck share is much higher and more problematic, especially on roads close to port facilities. Port-related truck traffic is highest in the inner port area (5.5% of all traffic and 75% of all truck traffic). Portions of I-95 experience the highest volume of total trucks and port-related truck traffic. By 2020, trucks in the inner port and on I-78 will grow more, both exceeding 2,000 per day. By 2020, the I-87/I-287 corridor will become the system’s largest truck carrier. By 2020, port-related trucks are forecast to be .85% of all traffic and total trucks to be 9.38% of all traffic.

The analysis points to the need for inner port area mitigation and improvements, pointing out that "alternative port development scenarios are likely to have the greatest noticeable impact at the local level" depending on terminal throughput of containers. It is assumed that today’s terminals will develop within existing footprints and improve efficiency in containers processed per acre. That could mean local roads will need more capacity, and possibly be rebuilt from scratch. North Ave. in Elizabeth accommodates 48% of Port Newark/Elizabeth port-related truck movements, because there are only two other access roads. The same is true for other similar locations like Howland Hook, Global Terminal and Red Hook.

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