The MTA’s ballooning debt, long warned of by transit advocates (see MTR #’s 112, 264, 275, 399 and others), has finally arrived as common knowledge by journalists, elected officials and other observers of the NY State fiscal landscape.

The problem’s latest intrusion into public consciousness came last week in a new report by State Comptroller Alan Hevesi. The Comptroller cautioned that vague areas in the MTA budget — like unspecified cost savings and hopeful economic forecasts — could lead to a series of fare hikes over the next three years. The MTA has already said it could reduce MetroCard discounts in 2005, but Hevesi’s warning said the base fare might also have to rise once or twice by 2007.

Even the NY Post, which launched a personal attack on Hevesi after the report’s publication, accepted the report’s basic findings.

The problem is essentially that NY State has ended any general support for the MTA’s capital program, forcing the transit system to rely on debt and fare hikes to keep going. "It’s the state going out of the business of supporting this transit system," Hevesi told reporters.

The prospect of ongoing MTA financial crises should be sobering to elected officials. It is an obvious problem for Governor Pataki. It could also prove a thorn in the side of the state legislature, which showed last year it could act without the governor when fiscal pressures warranted. Will State Assemblymembers and Senators put forward a realistic transit budget proposal of their own? These issues will be put to them squarely when the MTA capital program requires renewal in 2005. By then we should know more about the outlook for the next big federal transportation bill. But whether it is hopeful or bleak for New York, the MTA will still have a big financial burden to shoulder directly.

The next city mayoral election is also in 2005. Facing a campaign, Mayor Bloomberg will not be able to stand aside quietly if city bus and subway fares rise, as he did this year.

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