In his state of the state speech last week, NY Governor George Pataki said that later in January, the Lower Manhattan Development Corp., the MTA and the Port Authority will announce four options for a new Long Island Railroad route into the downtown area. The governor said that by April, he would announce the selected option and a "concrete plan to fund it and build it."

Such a project has been promoted non-stop by downtown business groups in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, and they have won support from Pataki, Mayor Bloomberg and U.S. Senator Charles Schumer (MTR #441). The plan was initially billed as a critical Long Island-downtown link, but when transportation experts showed that demand from Long Island commuters for such a line would likely be weak, the justification shifted to "airport access," with the argument being that a LIRR line from lower Manhattan to Jamaica would connect to the newly-opened JFK AirTrain. However, a high percentage of business travelers flying to NYC still reach the city via LaGuardia Airport.

It will be interesting to see the ridership projections that emerge from the current studies, if they are made public before the project selection takes place. Recent data shows that the fastest growing suburb-NYC commuter market is in New Jersey, while commuting from Long Island has been static for some time.

The announced timing for the project study and selection could have significant impacts on other major projects in downstate New York. In July, the MTA is expected to announce its 2005-2009 capital program, and the agency had previously slated significant spending for the next few years for the LIRR-Grand Central connection and Second Avenue Subway projects (MTR #427). One plan would displace subway trains from part of an existing tunnel (the A/C Cranberry St. tunnel), saving capital costs, but of course provoking intense and widespread opposition.

The MTA had earlier expressed disinterest in the downtown LIRR project, because it would have very low ridership compared to these other system expansion projects. The current studies are apparently being paid for by the Port Authority, as part of the recent NYC airport lease renegotiation deal brokered by Governor Pataki (MTR #434).

Likewise, Long Island business interests say they have bigger priorities than the downtown link. They would like to see the LIRR-Grand Central connection, a third track on the LIRR Main Line, rail freight infrastructure in NYC and Long Island and some Long Island road work done before a LIRR-downtown link is pursued.

Transit planners generally see the Second Avenue subway as a greater boon to downtown, and some have called for that line’s eventual extension to Brooklyn. It’s unclear at this point if an option of this sort is under consideration.

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