The 900 additional taxi medallions that the Bloomberg administration seeks to issue would add the equivalent of 27,000 commuter cars to Manhattan streets each day, according to one analysis. Most analysts who have looked at the NYC Taxi & Limousine Commission’s draft environmental impact statement say it deals with likely impacts in only cursory ways, failing to quantify them and propose adequate mitigation measures. It seems odd that Mayor Bloomberg, who has tried to tackle painfully slow Midtown Manhattan traffic speeds with initiatives like the "Thru Streets" plan (MTR #386), would risk making conditions considerably worse. However, the city’s political leaders (and editorial boards) appear to believe that expanding the taxi supply appeals to some populist instinct and subscribe to the common wisdom that you can never find a cab.

But where the NYC Taxi & Limousine Commission’s draft environmental impact statement (DEIS) for the medallion sale treats the issue of congestion impacts only vaguely, work by transportation analyst Charles Komanoff for the New York Taxi Workers Alliance says the effect could be dramatic. Because the average medallion taxi logs roughly 30 times as many miles in the Manhattan central business district per day or year as does the average private auto, adding 900 medallions without worsening traffic would require eliminating approximately 27,000 private cars from entering and/or operating within this area.

Komanoff calculated that the presence of 900 additional taxicabs will tack an additional 4%, on average, onto the time required for motor vehicles — not just yellow cabs but also other for-hire vehicles, private autos, vans, buses and trucks of all sizes — to make their journeys in Manhattan south of 96^th Street. Translating the 4% prolongation of vehicular trips into lost minutes and hours results in 18 million hours a year in lost time for Manhattan motorists and passengers.

Based on standard estimates of the value of time for different types of vehicles and their occupants, the time costs to motorists of the additional gridlock that will be created by 900 new medallion taxicabs can be expected to total $480 million a year, not including additional bridge and tunnel congestion, pedestrian delays, air and noise pollution and other costs. Komanoff said that cost far outweighed the value of the new taxi trips that would be available in Manhattan.

The Taxi & Limousine Commission’s DEIS does not quantify the congestion consequences of expanding the cab fleet, but says the extra traffic can be accommodated by traffic signal re-timing and restriping the lanes on some Midtown streets. The city’s consultant at a recent public hearing said a taxi fare increase would also provide some mitigation of traffic growth vs. simply adding 900 medallions at current fare levels.

Cab drivers at the hearings said more cabs will worsen rush hour traffic, and that there isn’t demand for more cabs at other times.

Consultant Antonia Bryson testified on behalf of a group of major environmental groups, noting that the DEIS contained no consideration of the additional taxis’ impacts on transit, pedestrian and goods movement. She also noted that the DEIS states that in 1999, cabs spent 271 million miles cruising empty, searching for passengers. More cab stands have long been seen as a way to impart more efficiency to the industry, but the city has not acted on it except at transportation hubs. Bryson also argued that the DEIS took an inadequate look at the proposal’s air pollution consequences.

Some suggested that taxi company shift changes are now often inconveniently scheduled during rush hours, when demand for cabs is greatest, and that some of the reported demand/supply imbalance with taxis can be alleviated with simple procedural changes by the companies. News reports last week suggested that the Bloomberg Administration is considering a $1 rush hour cab fare surcharge, along with a 25% basic fare increase, but the mayor appears undaunted by the prospect of significantly worsening Manhattan traffic congestion.

During the recent debate, Transportation Alternatives released a report backing higher cab fares, saying better paid drivers will be safer. The paper argues that better paid cab drivers will drive fewer hours (and thus be better rested) and not drive as fast and recklessly as low-wage driver trying to cram in more and more fares. Transportation expert Bruce Schaller performed the analysis, using data from the last decade that showed drivers making more per shift were involved in fewer crashes. The last NYC cab fare increase was in 1996. News reports have indicated that a majority of NYC Taxi and Limousine commissioners may be leaning toward a fare increase.

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