An unfocused list of big transit system expansion projects coupled with the increasingly enormous debt payments featured in the MTA’s budgets are likely to make the upcoming debate and negotiations over the 2005-2009 MTA capital plan even more difficult than those of previous years.

The MTA will release its draft of the five-year plan this summer, and it will likely be debated by the Bloomberg and Pataki administrations and NY State legislative leaders through the 2005 budget season.

Despite its successes in rebuilding the mass transit system during the 1980s and 90s, the MTA has been flirting with trouble during its past two capital programs. Under Governor Pataki, NY State has not developed new revenue sources for mass transit, and the system has had to rely on borrowing and two record-size fare increases to pay for capital improvements. "The MTA has big financial woes because Governor Pataki starved the agency for rebuilding funds. They had to borrow and now pay back many billions of dollars," Straphangers Campaign attorney Gene Russianoff told the Daily News last week.

  Although MTA day-to-day operating budgets are separate from the capital plan, they are linked in that capital debt service payments come out of the operating budget. Thus, borrowing for capital projects can put a lot of pressure on the fare, in the absence of other revenue sources like direct state and city support. Of course, a cash-strapped MTA also will have a tough time making progress on big new projects — various political powers and interests want the MTA to build a LIRR connection to Grand Central, the Second Avenue subway, a #7 subway extension and a new tunnel connecting the LIRR to lower Manhattan.

There are signs that some of the debate could be heated. Mayor Bloomberg was faulted by bus and subway riders for not championing their case when the MTA hiked fares in 2003. But he now appears peeved that over lack of headway on the transfer of the city’s franchise bus system or financing for the #7 subway extension, and voted against accelerated financing for new Metro-North trains last week. If further fare hikes look likely, a more serious divide could open between Governor Pataki and Mayor Bloomberg, who will stand for re-election late next year. Another outstanding issue is the reorganization of MTA operating agencies. Folding the Long Island Railroad into a more generic commuter rail agency is unpopular in both Long Island and the Hudson Valley.

As the MTA debate becomes more focused in coming months, it’s important to remember how critical capital investment in mass transit has been to the recovery of NYC and the surrounding region from the depths of the 1970s. As noted by Michael Gecan in a recent Village Voice piece, New York would not be what it is today without the amazing reconstruction of the city’s transit system. Consider: since 1982, subway trains have increased ridership by 39% and one-third of subway stations have been extensively renovated. Subway trains now break down everyone 100,000 miles, rather than every 7,000 miles in 1982.

The question for the region today is whether it can continue to grow and thrive without continued improvement in the transit system. Will political leaders like Governor Pataki and Mayor Bloomberg make the case for the public investments needed to do so.

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