A new direct Long Island Rail Road connection to Lower Manhattan would rely on Brooklyn subway riders to make financial sense, according to a recent analysis by the planning group Community Consulting Services (CCS).

CCS found that the commuter rail extension under consideration could serve about 12,000 current Brooklyn subway riders, which could double the ridership projections for the route if it accommodates only suburban commuters and airport travelers. Potential Brooklyn ridership could further increase by up to 20,000 if the NBA Nets stadium complex and development implied by the downtown Brooklyn rezoning plan come to pass.

"The bottom line is that the cost of the new LIRR airport rail service greatly exceeds the travel time benefit unless it attracts a large number of subway users. Without Brooklyn riders, this plan doesn’t work at all," Carolyn Konheim, chairwoman of CCS told the Daily News.

But in order for the commuter rail line to attract Brooklyn subway riders, its fare must be competitive with the subway’s and make a number of stops in Brooklyn.

However, the main options outlined for study of the extension are more likely to displace Brooklyn subway riders rather than offer them new alternatives. Three out of the four plans for the rail link would use existing subway tunnels, and possibly reduce train capacity along some combination of the A, C, M, N and R lines (MTR #446).

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