Transportation indicators appear to point toward economic recovery and big headaches ahead for the region’s drivers and highway managers. Though overall traffic and congestion has hit a plateau since 2000, it is likely a strong economic upturn could return the record-setting traffic levels seen in 1999 and 2000 to the metropolitan region. That period was marked by front-page tabloid stories calling for city and state transportation chiefs to get busy unfreezing chronic traffic jams. Are our DOTs prepared for a return to those days, or for traffic that exceeds the gridlocked days of 99-00?

After several years of declining or stagnant automobile travel, monthly vehicle miles of travel figures from the Federal Highway Administration show a nationwide growth in driving of 3 percent from New Years through April 2004 over the same period in 2003. In the Northeast, growth in driving has been slower, with VMT up only 1.6% over last year. But this still represents a marked change over the 2.2% decline seen through April 2003 over the same period in 2002.  Higher gasoline prices that took hold after April may dampen the trend somewhat.  Nevertheless, if a robust recovery is underway, VMT may reach unseen heights and demand innovative responses from road managers.

Despite higher fuel prices, trucking and freight logistics firms report heavy demand, tight capacity and strong second quarter economic performance. Some trucking companies are so busy they are reporting driver shortages. Major east coast railroads also reported a continuing surge of freight volume in quarterly reports to shareholders. According to the Wall St. Journal in July, CSX Corp. and Norfolk Southern reported second quarter growth in almost every freight category. Strong demand for rail services has created significant delays on the CSX network, according to the WSJ, and other sources note similarly worsening bottlenecks at some west coast railroads. As we noted last week, 21^st Century state DOT’s will have to cope not only with general traffic congestion, but also with a tidal wave of freight movement. Given the developing situation, these agencies should be organizing innovative travel demand management task forces and larger rail freight investment budgets now.

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