New Jersey will face a crush of new truck traffic in coming decades according to an analysis of Federal Highway Administration data released last Wednesday by the Campaign. The report, "What Growing Truck Traffic Will Mean for New Jersey’s Quality of Life," finds that the Garden State’s truck traffic could grow 80 percent over 1998 levels by 2020.

An increasingly global economy and expanding U.S. economy, together with the continued reliance on trucks to move freight will drive truck traffic up to 15.7 million miles daily by 2020. While every part of the state will see more trucks on their roads, some counties will bear more of the burden than others. Sussex County tops the list, with truck traffic forecasted to more than double, growing 107 percent over 1998 levels. Passaic County fares only slightly better with a projected growth in truck travel of 93 percent. Cape May, Atlantic, and Mercer counties follow, with 86, 85, and 84 percent truck traffic growth respectively.

This surge in truck traffic could have dire consequences for the state’s traffic safety, congestion, road and bridge conditions, and air quality. Per mile traveled, trucks are 20 percent more likely to be involved in a fatal collision than cars. Statewide, trucks were involved in 82 traffic deaths in 2002. But with truck mileage expected to increase by 80 percent, that figure could rise to as high as 133 by the year 2020.

The NJ Dept. of Transportation agreed with the report’s findings: "The concern is very real," DOT spokesman Mark Lovorgna told the Asbury Park Press. "The department is working with all interested groups looking at all possible solutions to move goods through the state in the 21st century."

With the average truck taking up as much road space as 3 to 4 cars, and truck traffic growing much faster than background levels, trucks will add disproportionately to New Jersey’s already horrendous traffic congestion. By 2020, the annual delay on New Jersey’s major roads will grow to more than 4,500 hours, an eight-fold increase over 1998 levels.

Trucks also do far more damage to roads and bridges than cars, with the average truck causing as much wear and tear as 2,000 to 3,000 cars. The projections of skyrocketing truck traffic are especially bad news for New Jersey, which currently has some of the worst road (7^th worst) and bridge (8^th worst) conditions in the nation. An 80 percent increase in truck traffic could cost the state billions in extra repair costs.

Finally, trucks will further pollute the Garden State’s air. New federal regulations on diesel engine technology may hold the promise of reducing truck emissions significantly. But as we noted in MTR #484, many trucking firms may step up truck purchases dramatically before the new regulations go into effect in 2006. Since truck engines can last up to 30 years, this strategy could delay emissions reductions by decades. Even in the best case, huge increases in truck travel could push off appreciable emissions reductions for the foreseeable future.

The Campaign’s report offers several recommendations to help take the edge off the expected surge in truck traffic. First and foremost, the state needs more investment in rail freight to help improve, modernize and expand the state’s existing freight network. Other possibilities include the development of "shuttle trains" to move freight between the ports and major distribution centers, truck tolls to help keep trucks off of problem corridors, and the creation of a statewide plan to cluster distribution centers near ports or consumer markets to avoid multiple movements of products.

One trucker attempted to paint the Campaign as "anti-truck" and argued against routing rules or rail investment in a Star-Ledger op-ed last week. The label is a mis-read of the Campaign’s point of view on the future of freight, not to mention simply irrelevant. Many more trucks are coming no matter what policy-makers do. The question is whether we can reduce their impacts with more balanced public investment and smart planning.

The Campaign’s full report, along with county impact fact sheets, is available at www.tstc.org. 

Project Truck Travel Growth Across New Jersey

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