The 14-county downstate region needs more than twice what Albany appears to have approved for road and bridge projects by 2010, according to a report by Bruce Schaller for the NYU Rudin Center.

The paper offers four potential funding scenarios. Under the proposed $6 billion or so downstate program, road and bridge conditions will deteriorate and congestion will worsen. A $7.3 billion program would maintain existing bridge and road conditions but allow congestion to worsen, and a $9 billion program will keep things pretty much as they are.

It claims a $13.7 billion program will improve infrastructure conditions and reduce congestion to mid-1990s levels. The report was paid for the General Contractors Association.

The report says vehicle miles increased 20% in the 1990s, and that economic costs due to congestion have increased 81% from 1990, costing $7.1 billion in 2002. But the report states clearly that building out of congestion with additional highway capacity is not an option. It contains a general discussion of anti-congestion measures like HOV lanes, fixing bottlenecks and intelligent transportation systems.

The report seems to only attribute increases in congestion mainly to growth in employment, population, and auto ownership rates, but does not discuss the contribution of poor planning that encourages sprawling land uses (Long Island population growth, for instance, is quite slow). It lists some controversial and essentially dead plans, such as the Long Island Transportation Plan, as projects that "might be included in a sensible mobility program" (but it also demurs by stating that it does not endorse any particular project). It omits any discussion of some the potentially best bang-for-the-buck roadway congestion-busting measures out there — notably, congestion pricing and non-stop toll applications.

The report contains some interesting implications. If road congestion is destined to worsen, it may mean access to transit and freight rail in New York’s suburbs and NYC boroughs will become an even more competitive factor in business location choice than in the past. 

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